This report examines potential transformations that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic. It analyzes current security challenges related to climate and geography, economy, territorial claims, and military power, suggests some ways in which these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage the risks to cooperation.

Despite a period of generally heightened tensions between Russia and the West, cooperation on Arctic affairs-particularly through the Arctic Council-has remained largely intact, with the exception of direct military-to-military cooperation in the region. This report examines potential transformations that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance there. It analyzes current security challenges in the Arctic with regard to climate and geography, economy, territorial claims, and military power, and suggests some ways in which these could undermine Arctic cooperation. It concludes with recommendations for the U.S. government to manage the risks to cooperation posed by these various factors.

This research should be of interest to the many organizations, inside and outside the U.S. government, that are Arctic stakeholders and are concerned with current and upcoming transformations in the Arctic, the likely impact of those transformations on the region's security, and Russia's role in that security.